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World: revised to 3% in 2019, growth reaches its lowest rate since 2009



World: revised to 3% in 2019, growth reaches its lowest rate since 2009

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just lowered its growth forecast to 3% in 2019. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the institution’s latest forecast in April. The Economic Outlook Report released in October refers to the slowest pace since the 2009 financial crisis (up from 3.6% in 2018).

Indeed, the main features of this new Economic Outlook Report were presented to the press on Tuesday, October 15, 2019, at a press conference hosted by IMF Economic Advisor Gita Gopinath.

Global growth rate

The Report indicates that growth in low-income developing countries remains robust, although the results are more heterogeneous among this group. Strong growth is expected in noncommodity exporting countries, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. On the other hand, the performance of commodity exporting countries, notably Nigeria, is expected to remain poor.

However, the IMF warns, the risks of a downward revision of the outlook remain high. Indeed, trade barriers and rising geopolitical tensions, including risks related to Brexit, could further disrupt supply chains and affect confidence, investment and growth.

These tensions, as well as other domestic policy uncertainties, could have a negative impact on the expected recovery in global growth.

From causes to solutions

IMF experts cite, as causes of the slowdown in growth, the consequence of increased trade barriers, increased trade uncertainty and geopolitical conditions, specific factors that cause macroeconomic tensions in several emerging countries, and structural factors, including low productivity and an aging population in advanced countries.

« In the context of a synchronized slowdown and an uncertain recovery, the global outlook remains fragile. With growth of 3%, leaders have no margin for error and must work together to urgently ease trade and geopolitical tensions. In this way, they can not only stimulate growth, but also catalyse the concerted solutions needed to improve the global trading system, » said Gita Gopinah.

For the IMF, it is also essential that governments continue to work together to address key issues, including climate change (with concrete solutions), international taxation, corruption and cyber security.

Proposed reform package

The world’s countries, including DR Congo, are thus encouraged to simultaneously undertake structural reforms aimed at increasing productivity, resilience and equity. The implementation of these reforms, which enhance human capital and make labour and product markets more flexible, are, according to the IMF, likely to help reverse the trend of increasing divergence between regions in advanced countries.

« The benefits of reforms are also greater when governance and access to credit, two key determinants of growth, are strong and when the informal nature of the labour market is more pronounced, as reforms contribute to its mitigation. Hence, the importance of carefully tailoring reforms to each country’s situation to maximize their benefits, » Gita Gopinath stressed.

Moreover, a recovery is expected in 2020. Indeed, global growth is expected to improve slightly to 3.4%, corresponding to a 0.2% downward revision of the IMF’s April projections. However, this recovery is not widespread but it remains precarious.

Growth in advanced countries is expected to slow to 1.7 per cent in 2019 and 2020, while growth in emerging and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.9 per cent in 2019 to 4.6 per cent in 2020.

Eric TSHIKUMA, Special Envoy

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DRC: the « education » project will be submitted to the WB Board of Directors in February 2020



DRC: Education project to be submitted to World Bank Board in February 2020

The Government’s emergency project on free « Basic Education » will be submitted to the World Bank’s Executive Board in February 2020. According to the Vice President for Africa, Hafez Ghanem, preparations are being intensified to ensure that this deadline is met.

« We are working very quickly on this education project. And we plan to bring this project to our Council as early as February. Regarding the height of the amount, we are in the process of making evaluations. It’s going to be a big amount, around a billion US dollars, » he told reporters at the end of his meeting with the Congolese delegation led by Finance Minister José Sele Yalaghuli.

Indeed, this emergency project is part of World Bank support for the Government’s efforts to provide free basic education, the implementation of which began last September.

To relieve the pressure on public finances to allocate at least US$25-37 million each month, the World Bank has pledged to support the Congolese Government in this regard. line with the commitment of the Head of State, Felix Antoine Tshisekedi, and the President of the World Bank, David Malpass, the Minister of Finance, José Sele Yalaghuli, has clearly indicated the Congolese Government’s firm desire to see the process speed up so that funds are released within an acceptable time frame.

« This is the right time for the partners of DR Congo to match the real political will of the Congolese national executive to meet one of the aspects of the World Bank’s mandate, namely: the fight against poverty, » he said at a previous meeting with the World Bank delegation led by Jean-Christophe Carret.

With regard to the health coverage programme, Hafez Ghanem reiterated his institution’s commitment to continue working alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly in the fight against Ebola.


He added: « We will also work with the Government on a new health programme to strengthen basic health centres and improve access to health across the country. »

However, he gave no indication of the amount of funding for this health programme, especially since it is currently under study.

As a reminder, the delegations of DR Congo and the World Bank held a working meeting on Thursday 17 October 2019 in Washington DC. Experts from both sides, led by José Sele Yalaghuli and Hafez Ghanem respectively, reviewed ongoing projects within the World Bank portfolio and those under preparation.

In addition to education and health, projects related to infrastructure, connectivity (roads) and the digital economy were also discussed.

Eric TSHIKUMA, from Washington

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DRC: the three axes of the Accelerated Programme to Combat Poverty and Inequality



DRC: the three axes of the Accelerated Programme to Combat Poverty and Inequality

The President of the Republic launched his Accelerated Programme to Combat Poverty and Inequality in Kinshasa on Wednesday 16 October at the site of my valley in the commune of Mongafula.

This Programme aims to ensure that twenty million Congolese living in rural and peri-urban areas in the 145 territories of our country leave poverty or extreme poverty within the next 5 years.

It has three components: improving rural and peri-urban populations’ access to basic socio-economic infrastructure and services; promoting rural and peri-urban economies; and building capacity in managing for development results at the national, provincial and local levels.

The first component aims to increase the population’s access to basic services such as housing, electricity through the promotion of micro hydroelectric power plants, drinking water, health and agricultural access roads. This list is not exhaustive.

The second component aims to ensure that people in villages and peri-urban neighbourhoods have improved and stable sources of income and that they consume at least one balanced meal per day. This component will place particular emphasis on promoting inclusive agricultural sectors.

The third component aims to develop a culture of autonomy, which will result in the appropriation of development by the beneficiary populations, the strengthening of self-esteem, meritocracy and a motivated attachment to their living environment.

Substantial resources for this ambitious program!

« The Programme, the main components of which I have just unveiled, requires ambitious funding over several years, » said Félix Tshisekedi, aware of these challenges. In the face of such an ambition, the Head of State asks the Government to spare no effort to explore all possible avenues likely to provide the means for this saving action for the people.

It is with this in mind that the last Council of Ministers adopted the hypothesis of a budget reaching the 10 billion mark.

In addition, Félix Tshisekedi intends to engage the country in far-reaching reforms ranging from the rebuilding of the state with justice as the epicentre to the sectors of national life.

This is how he makes his main focus the fight against anti-values, particularly corruption, embezzlement of public funds, tax fraud, smuggling and tribalism. And all means will be used to ensure that all State revenues are channelled into the Public Treasury.

Finally, to make this programme a success, the President of the Republic is counting on the involvement of all his compatriots, beyond the divisions.

Harris Kasongo

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DRC: Economic and financial situation at the heart of a meeting at the World Bank



DRC: Economic and financial situation at the heart of a meeting at the World Bank

The economic situation in DR Congo is the focus of a meeting on Thursday 17 October 2019 at the World Bank’s headquarters in Washington DC. The Minister of Finance, José Sele Yalaghuli, leads the delegation of Congolese experts.

In his presentation, the national silversmith described a macroeconomic framework for DR Congo that has remained stable.

Despite accumulated deficits of 420 billion Congolese francs at the end of September 2019, domestic prices and the exchange rate fluctuated slightly. And at this rate, the Government reports inflation of 4.2% at the end of December 2019, which is below the 7% end of period forecast level.

Referring to the strategic and political orientations of the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Minister Sele Yalaghuli cited in particular the tightening of public spending in order to limit deficits and the subscription of treasury bonds with the ambition of mobilizing 150 billion CDF by the end of 2019 to fill the gaps.

The first results are promising, especially since a small monthly budget surplus was recorded at the end of September 2019.

Moreover, added Sele Yalaghuli, the third orientation concerns the Government’s firm commitment to pursue the implementation of reforms with the support of partners to remove obstacles sector by sector and to be able to remedy them.

With regard to cooperation between the Congo DR and the Bretton Woods institutions. After the break-up of the formal programme with the IMF in 2012, the ongoing recovery strategy of the current discussions is based on two options.

First, the interim program. Then, the formal program. If the first one will cover the preparation period of the second one, the conclusion of the formal programme could take place after the third quarter of 2020.

« This is the right time for the partners of DR Congo to match the real political will of the Congolese national executive to meet one of the aspects of the World Bank’s mandate, namely: the fight against poverty, » José Sele Yalaghuli said, addressing the World Bank delegation led by Jean-Christophe Carret.

With the World Bank, experts from DR Congo are working on preparations and options to initiate disbursement of funds for the Government’s priority sectors on are: basic education and universal health coverage.

This interaction with World Bank teams continued, with Hafez Ghanem, Vice President in charge of the Africa region, as the focus.

Eric TSHIKUMA, from Washington DC

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